It’s Different This Time (Maybe)
02/13/26
By: Robert DiMeo
Amazon just posted blowout earnings fueled by AI innovations. The stock surged and investors cheered. But beneath the celebration lies a deeper question: will the massive investment in AI that we’re seeing by both companies and investors deliver investment results?
History offers a cautionary tale. The Fama-French “investment factor” shows that, in aggregate, companies with the highest Capex tend to underperform over time. Railroads, telecom, broadband… all saw enormous spending, but many investors got crushed.
What makes this time different?
Maybe nothing. Maybe everything.
There can be two truths:
Most dedicated investments in AI infrastructure may never generate attractive returns.
A select few could become generational winners.
So what’s an investor to do?
1️⃣ Make it clinical: Know your specific goals and the returns required to reach them.
2️⃣ Take only the necessary risk: Avoid FOMO. Don’t worry about how others are invested.
3️⃣ Stick with the tried and true: Maintain a broad, thoughtfully diversified portfolio.
Momentum plays can be exciting. But discipline is timeless.
As always, feel free to reach out to any of our professionals at Fiducient Advisors
1 U.S. Inflation Calculator / OfficialData.org S&P 500 Total Return Dataset (2016–2026).$100 invested in 2016 would have grown to approximately $422 by 2026, including reinvested dividends.
The information contained herein is confidential and the dissemination or distribution to any other person without the prior approval of Fiducient Advisors is strictly prohibited. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, though not independently verified. Any forecasts are hypothetical and represent future expectations and not actual return volatilities and correlations will differ from forecasts. This report does not represent a specific investment recommendation. The opinions and analysis expressed herein are based on Fiducient Advisor research and professional experience and are expressed as of the date of this report. Please consult with your advisor, attorney and accountant, as appropriate, regarding specific advice. Past performance does not indicate future performance and there is risk of loss.
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